Donald Trump Says He Won the Debate, Here’s What Polls Say

Donald Trump is still claiming he won last week’s debate against Kamala Harris, despite polls giving Harris the lead.
“Finally everyone is agreeing that I won the Debate with Kamala. It was like a delayed reaction but, as one Political Pundit said, “Trump is still the G.O.A.T.”” the former president wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday night.
Trump’s declaration comes after he and Harris took to the stage in Philadelphia last Tuesday, September 10, for their first debate together of the election cycle.
The former president was fact-checked a number of times during the debate for repeating false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and promoting a conspiracy theory about migrants in Ohio abducting and eating pets.
Both candidates claimed victory after the debate, but CNN’s flash poll revealed 63 percent of viewers thought Harris won the debate, compared to 37 percent who said the same about Trump. A week later, polling still shows that Harris won the debate, and that Harris is ahead of Trump nationally.
An Angus Reid Global poll conducted between September 13 and 16 shows that 56 percent of those who watched or followed the debate say that Harris held the advantage in the contest, while one-quarter (25 percent) believe Trump won.
The poll also shows that Harris supporters are far more convinced their candidate won than Trump supporters, with 93 percent of Harris supporters saying Harris clearly won or won by a small margin, while only 61 percent of Trump supporters said the same thing.
A Data for Progress poll, conducted between September 12 and 13, also showed a majority of voters think Harris won the debate, with 56 percent choosing the vice president to Trump’s 37 percent.
Meanwhile, polling averages show that Harris has made gains since the debate.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker shows that Harris’ polling average lead now stands at 2.9 points, up from 2.6 points on September 9, the day before the debate.
Nate Silver’s poll tracker also shows that Harris has seen a boost since September 9, from a 2.2 point lead to a 2.9 point lead.
In addition, almost every individual poll conducted since the debate has put Harris ahead. For example, the Angus Reid Global poll shows that Harris is 4 points ahead of Trump among 1,707 registered voters, on 49 percent to his 45 percent. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
Another poll, conducted by Morning Consult between September 13 and 15, showed Harris with a 6 point lead among 11,022 likely voters, while a Big Village poll conducted between September 11 and 15 put Harris 7 point ahead among 1,568 likely voters. In both polls, Harris’ lead was outside the margin of error.
“It’s possible that Harris is benefiting not just from the debate but also from the favorable news coverage that it’s brought her,” pollster Nate Silver wrote in his newsletter.
But although Harris continues to hold slightly more voter support than former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race for president, the race is still extremely close, meaning it is anyone’s to win.
A recent J.L. Partners poll put Harris just 1 point ahead, on 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent among 1,000 likely voters—a lead within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver’s Electoral College forecast shows Trump has a 60 percent chance of winning to Harris’ 38 percent.
Nonetheless, Harris is still leading in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, as well as Nate Silver’s. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model also shows that Harris’ Electoral College advantage over Trump has grown. She is now predicted to win 294 votes to Trump’s 244. That is up from 279 votes to Trump’s 259 votes on the day of the debate.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.